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What are my chances of getting into CAS for J-school?

I'm a black/white/indian female from NC applying ED

3.1 unweighted (i'm expecting it to increase to atleast 3.3-3.5 after the 1st semester of senior year)
1310 SAT (720 verbal, taking it again)
IB courses (math, spanish, english, history, all four years), 1 year bio, 3 years chem, 1 year psych, TOK; some APs
I'll have the "IB Diploma" when I graduate
National Merit Scholarship Finalist
top 18% of my class (unofficial, 95/502)
some community college courses
I'm not a strong math student, but I do well in english and history

E/C:
Community tennis
church involvement
Many different choir groups all 4 years (award winning choirs)
spanish club
mock trial
teaching ESL
newspaper internship
school newspaper

I can pretty much guarantee glowing recommendations. My essays will kick ass (if I do say so myself).

But there is one major problem. I was having a rough year (family problems), and I got a D in math this year. I have however managed to get a reccomendation from the teacher who gave it to me. If I explain my situation, do you think it will help?

Also, money is a problem. I'm from a single parent household (26000-30000 a year). I know that NYU is notoriously stingy.

I'm also applying Syracuse and EA to Chapel Hill. But NYU is my first choice (mainly b/c of location).