Quick question, Reach= - -% ?

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Discus: What Are My Chances?: August 2004 Archive: Quick question, Reach= - -% ?
By Kousuke (Kousuke) on Friday, August 13, 2004 - 01:08 am: Edit

when people on this board say that a school is like a "good reach" for someone, what do they mean, like for me, amherst ED is a "reach" but what % chance does that mean? i have been assuming somewhere around 25%, is that too high or too low? or is it just not possible to convert it into a numerical figure. also how much better are my chances at amherst than they are at MIT? my stats are here http://www.collegeconfidential.com/cgi-bin/discus/show.cgi?757/80240

By Kousuke (Kousuke) on Friday, August 13, 2004 - 03:26 pm: Edit


By Drusba (Drusba) on Friday, August 13, 2004 - 04:19 pm: Edit

None of us engages in a precise science and our guessing should be taken with quite a bit of skepticism. Most who are seeking views on their chances generally are seeking a little reassurance, which many of us are more than happy to give, that they are good enough to be considered. Your stats place you in the upper 50% of those usually admitted to Amherst. Amherst's admission rate is only in the high teens but almost double that for ED applicants. The situation you face is the same faced by many -- on paper, you look very much like the majority of those who get admitted but then you also look like very much like the vast majority who get rejected. It is a crapshoot because ultimately at schools like Amherst the final decision is subjective -- some admissions officers just like you a little better than others that look a lot like you whom they reject. If you want, give yourself a 35% chance ED but don't get overly hung up on it and keep your options open and make sure you apply to a safety or two (and never consider any school that accepts less than 40% to be a safety even if your stats are high). Your chances at MIT regular decison are lower simply because it is harder to get in there and your stats are actually in the lower half for that school. But you are good enough to apply at any top college -- look at this way, most everyone admitted to a top ranked school had only a 1 in 7 chance of being admitted when they applied. Someone gets in and your chances are just as good as those who have in the past.

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