Rate my chances... too many schools/reaches?





Click here to go to the NEW College Discussion Forum

College Discussion Forums: What Are My Chances?: December 2003 Archive: Rate my chances... too many schools/reaches?
By Tlo (Tlo) on Monday, December 01, 2003 - 11:48 pm: Edit

I am 3.78% 14/377 of my class and my GPA is 4.167 weighted 3.65 unweighted
I have taken 6 AP classes, and 10 other honors classes.

My SATs are 1280 (680 M, 600 V),
28 ACT (32 M, 30 sci, 21 reading, 27 wri)
SATs IIs (790 US his, 670 Math IIC, 620 MathIC
610 Writing(retaking Jan),
and AP tests are (4 US history, 5 Human Geo, 5 Micro, 4 Macro).

My ECs are very strong:
I own my own website.
I manage a stock portfolio.
I am a restaurant advisor.
I went to Harvard summer school and got two B+'s in Capital Markets and Investments; and Web Development
Also I have 4 years student/class council (VP and pres 2 years)
8 hours a month community service, officer for two years at Interact Leaders Club
Big Brother mentor
Yearbook
NHS
Amensty Int.
Talent show
Math Team
Winter Track
Founded our school wiffleball league (Yay!)
Helped restart a high school frat

I have a feeling my recs are good:
My economics teacher put, "top in his career for academics on my harvard summer app"
My harvard econ professor is writing me a rec.
Also, I am friends with the alumni interviewer for Wharton.
I am also an Asian from Maine.

I know my choices are ambitious, but
Please rate my chances:
Reaches:
Wharton (Early Decision)
Harvard
Stanford
UC-Berkeley,
NYU (Stern)
Columbia

Match (well kinda):
University of Texas at Austin (Red McCoombs Business School)
Michigan
Emory
UCLA
Tufts
Madison

safeties:
Texas (regular college)
UCSB

By Tlo (Tlo) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 12:30 am: Edit

anyone?

By Jamimom (Jamimom) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 10:04 am: Edit

You have a lot of schools already, so I hesitate to say that you may want to add a few safety/match schools. A lot of your schools are large out of state public schools and if you are not a resident, the standards are higher than for in state kids. Because of the size of the schools and the volume of applications, many base their decisions on computer entry of SATs, and class rank. And for the schools you picked the standards are pretty high, especially for out of staters. As you well know, your reach schools are really lottery tickets. And I really consider your match school more in the reach category. I would advise you to pick one or two true safties--maybe just apply on line if you can find some that you like just so that you have some good choices in April.
Your ECs look good but they don't carry as much weight in many of your choices. I tell you this because I know several kids who were turned down by UT Austin and UC schools and Madison and Michigan, Ann Arbor with numbers higher than yours. When my son who was an athletic recruit was looking at some out of state schools, the athletic directors said right out that the out of state SAT1 cutoff is 1350 (this pertains to kids that the coach would like but not within his out of state recruiting quotas--all recruited athletes are not equal-some have to meet certain standards depending on the school, sport, and his place on the coaches' wish list) When I said that admissions told the visiting groups that there is absolutely no SAT1 cutoff, I got a shrug and a knowing look. This scenario was repeated several times at different state school.
Now this was 4 years ago, but I don't thing things have loosened up at this point. I have two girls who had high grades, lots of APs but SATs in your range. They had excellent ECs, refs, strong school support and wonderful personal demeanors. I would have considered your list top heavy for them. I insisted that they add several safety/match schools and the planning did pay off though one girl actually got into Cornell from the wait list.

By Carolyn (Carolyn) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 11:43 am: Edit

I agree with Jamimom. You need to add some safeties and true matches. UCSB is NOT a safety for someone with your stats even if you lived in-state. That leaves you with only one possible safety. As Jamimom said, some of the schools on your match list are really reaches (for example, UCLA would be a reach even for someone with your stats who lived in-state and the UC admissions standards are much higher if you're out-of-state). I'd suggest you drop one or two from each of your reach and match lists and add two true safety or match schools. Best of luck!

By Jennyzsong (Jennyzsong) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 01:21 pm: Edit

sorry but personally i think you have like a minus five percent at any of your reaches with your stats right now.

even our 'matches' are pretty far fetched

especially since being asian will NOT help.

8 hours a month of community service is really not very much unless you've been doing it since you were born.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 08:35 pm: Edit

Well I was more interested in where I stand with my reach schools... I have applied to UC- Santa Cruz, Irvine, and Davis. I am taking the SATs again and know I can get a 1350. My hook for the top schools is the fact that my website makes 20 k/ year and I manage a 130 k portfolio.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 08:42 pm: Edit

I also did the Michigan admissions calculator and got a 102-108 More than 100 points was the quota in the past. It's strange my guidance counselor isn't sound as negative as you guys... He mentioned I will have an sizable advantage coming from Maine. It doesn't hurt to try!

By Tlo (Tlo) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 09:28 pm: Edit

Well can anyone recommend a larger urban party school with a good business program. And could I get some ratings (1-10) especially on:
Wharton (ED)
NYU (stern)
Berkeley
Mich
Madison
UT Austin (both College and McCoombs)

By Tlo (Tlo) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 09:28 pm: Edit

Well can anyone recommend a larger urban party school with a good business program. And could I get some ratings (1-10) especially on:
Wharton (ED)
NYU (stern)
Berkeley
Mich
Madison
UT Austin (both College and McCoombs)

By Carolyn (Carolyn) on Tuesday, December 02, 2003 - 09:39 pm: Edit

I think you have a shot at NYU. You also have a shot at Madison and Michigan. Just bear in mind that public schools like Michigan, Wisc. and Berkeley are much more focused on pure numbers than EC's so they may not have as much pull as you think. Your EC's will help you the most at private schools like NYU. Don't forget that January is too late to submit new SATs and SAT II scores to the UC's. I can also guarantee you that you won't be the only person applying to Wharton and Harvard who have started and run their own businesses or manage stock portfolio's. Of course, they may not be from Maine.


Anyhow, if you are sure you want to major in business, I'm surprised that Babson and Bentley didn't make your list of schools. They're both excellent for business and Babson is known for its entrepreneurship programs. Some other schools near/in large cities that have good business programs and would be matches or possibly safeties for you:
Fordham, University of Denver, Boston U, Santa Clara University, University of Southern California, Tulane, University of San Diego (the private school not the UC).

Best of luck to you -I hope you prove us all wrong!!!!

By Tlo (Tlo) on Wednesday, December 03, 2003 - 05:39 pm: Edit

I realize that Harvard, Stanford, and Wharton are dreams. I think I have a 50-50 shot at Michigan, seeings how I scored on the admission calculator, and that UT-Austin and Madison are even better chances. What are the out-of-state scores here?

By Ariesathena (Ariesathena) on Wednesday, December 03, 2003 - 05:48 pm: Edit

For Tufts, there is an admissions statistics for the class of 2007 based on SAT and class rank.
http://admissions.tufts.edu/admstat.htm

0-5% class rank: 37% chance of getting in
650-690 math: 21%
600-640 verbal: 21%

Now, that's just by the numbers, which are not the sole factor in the admissions process. In some ways, as your extracurriculars are quite solid, interesting, and you do have the Harvard classes, things look good for you. However, when you statistically have about a 26% chance of getting into a school, it isn't exactly a match.

Your schools are ambitious... and there is nothing wrong with that. Casting your net wide is often the best way to go. However, getting some true safeties on there will be very important. Bentley and Babson are great for business, and you will probably get into both of them (unless things have gotten much harder in the past few years, and if so, please correct me!).

Good luck!

By Tlo (Tlo) on Thursday, December 04, 2003 - 05:00 am: Edit

My bro went to Bentley for a year, transferred out... Too many guys for an all business school... I want to go to a fun big school, where classes other than business classes aren't a total joke!

By Tlo (Tlo) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 03:23 am: Edit

I got my rec from my Harvard professor and it is very excellent "impressed me" "very strong recommendation"... How much will this matter?

By Nycschoolss (Nycschoolss) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 04:00 am: Edit

To Tlo- I dont want to shatter your dreams, but realistically u have absolute no chance into any other those schools with the grades/Ec's you have. I think the fact that you are from MAine might be more appealing to the admissions people than your website or finacial stuff. So, pray that very very little from Maine will apply to those schools.

Well, how did you get a "impressed me" "very strong recommendation" when you only got a B+ in the class - Something doesnt match and the admissions people will see something is wrong in this. They will assume that the professor is untrustworthy or simply just an easier teacher because Very Strong Rec's are reserved for people with A's.

And these three schools, Emory,UCLA,Tufts are more like your dream schools. Michigan, I would say you have a 50% shot in gettin in because Michigan is a big public school and accepts alot of people.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 08:04 pm: Edit

Well I think most of you have no idea what chances are for kids from Maine or understand my complete package... I would say between UCLA, Tufts, and Emory my chances are 75% I will get into one... My 2 college counselors think I will get into 1 of those, and that Michigan/Texas/Madison are over 50% each. I also know kids from Maine that got into Emory/Tufts with similar stats. I also think you are all mostly from way over-competitive private schools, and I think you place way too much weight on SATs... maybe I'm wrong.

BTW, A B+ at Harvard is pretty good. It was a college course with undergraduates. He is a PH,D. professor and we had many discussions, so just b/c I got a B+ in his course doesn't mean I still can't impress him.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 08:17 pm: Edit

Am I also foolish to think that even the top schools (UC's in particular) don't want all 1600/4.0 SAT people. So if I offer an intriguing canidate, they might give me a shot? I think my EC's are strong... also is being top 3.8% not going to cut it? One kid from my school ranked 13/350 and got into Harvard.

By Aerin04 (Aerin04) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 08:18 pm: Edit

How can you consider UCLA 75%? Last year, UCLA had something like the 2nd or 3rd most undergrad applicants in the country. Applying out of state to any UC (esp Berkeley and LA) lowers your chances significantly.

I think you are well qualified for the school itself, but with the combination of being out-of-state (although Maine isnt a bad state to be from) and your SAT scores (UC's don't care that much about ECs -- it's all SATs, ESPECIALLY SAT II, which are weighted twice as much) I would NOT say UCLA is a match.

By Twotoo13 (Twotoo13) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 08:27 pm: Edit

i don't quite understand why everyone thinks these are such reaches for tlo, except for a lower-than-ivy sar score, i think he makes a good candidate.

anyone care to un-confuse me?

By Thedad (Thedad) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 09:15 pm: Edit

Being from Maine will give you points for geographic diversity, which would be a tip for you when compared to *other equally qualified candidates or nearly so.*

A 1280 is pretty much near the zone of death for the many of the schools you're looking at, absent being a recruited athlete or URM. For an out-of-state student you're going to blown out of the water at UCLA.

Twotwo, the trick isn't to look at how good *you* are, it's to look at how good the competition is.
In the application pools for Harvard, Stanford, Columbia, Tufts, and UCLA (o/s), I don't think the OP is going to stand out.

By Sailorgirl1985 (Sailorgirl1985) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 10:15 pm: Edit

Since the UC's get so many applicants they place a huge emphasis on scores. Coming from the Seattle area I have a number of friends applying to different UC schools. The friends I have applying to UCLA have around 150-200 more points on the SAT's an SAT 2 average close to 700 have done most if not all of the IB diploma with a 3.8-3.9 gpa basically for the UC's stronger applicants. And for them UCLA is a match, because they're coming from Out- of - State. Yes coming from Maine is geographic diversity but it doesn't make up for weak SAT's and SAT 2's. Compared with you're competition that's below average on number of AP's. Yes your EC's are great but they're going to reject you before they look at them much. People who get into Ivy's with SAT's below the 25% percentile are either URM's or recruited athletes or something else along those lines, a kid whose parents just donated the new library etc.. You don't seem to fit this profile
My thoughts...
Somewhat Pointless:
Harvard
Stanford
Big Reaches:
UCLA
UCB
NYU
Columbia
Tufts
Emory
Reaches (If I was applying these would be the caliber of my reaches):
Michigan
Madison
UTA
Matches:
Normal University of Texas
UCSB (you're out of state)
You need some matches and safeties and it seems like you're applying to a lot of schools even if this was a well balanced list. You should apply to the University of Maine just make sure you have somewhere to go come May 1st. What you've heard on hear probably isn't what you want to hear but I'd said it's definitely much more accurate and realistic. Go ahead and apply to a few of your reaches maybe some bored admissions officer will actually read you're whole application and you'll get lucky. But don't waste hundreds of dollars applying to tons of schools you have 0-3% shot at and then find yourself with 0-2 choices come April, none of which you really like. Find some schools that are NOT number focused. That's what you really need

By Jamimom (Jamimom) on Friday, December 05, 2003 - 10:49 pm: Edit

If you have your apps out or ready to send out, go right on ahead and do as planned. Then sit back and look for some schools with later deadlines and just do a few more apps. U of Maine, some of the other New England State schools that have reciprocity with Maine, U of Pittsburgh, Temple, American University, some SUNYs, College of Charleston (a personal favorite of mine) and just look through the books and find some gems that might interest you. If things pan out, then, congratulations. If not, you'll have some low cost but still excellent (top 10-15%0 schools to consider. You'll have filled out a lot of tough apps by then, so these would be a breeze.
The college application process has become so unpredictable that even with a hundred points on your SATs, you would not be a shoo in at these schools. As Carolyn and I have pointed out, many of these state schools are formula driven. All they stick into the computer are the SAT, class rank,date of application and that you are out of state. They don't look at your ECs or recs except to flag anything that is inflammatory or truly outstanding (you are a celeb!, for instance) Even then, you can be rejected. My brother's best friend from highschool still gets teased about being reject by State U. He was accepted to MIT, but when he decided to apply to State U as a safety, he did too late. Some of these schools would turn down Einstein himself if he did not have the right numbers in the right place and apply before the seats filled up.The UCs are very funny about out of staters. The only kids I know who have gotten into them from out of state have been the top students with lots of APs, high SAT2s.And SAT1s higher than yours. I don't think they are as interested in national diversity as many of the private schools. And Maine is not exactly a backward state. A lot of strong candidates from Maine.
I am not suggesting you give up on your schools. Your ECs sound impressive and may have clout that we can't see from this post. If you have something that a school feels is unique, interesting and of great value to the school, you could be Stanford or Harvard bound. I have seen it happen and I certainly am not going to discount your resume.
It's just that it is always nice to have several back up plans because of the unpredictablilty of this whole process. It is so much better to be picking among a bunch of schools, than lamenting on lost opportunities in April. And if it those additional app were all for naught, you can proudly tell us. Or proudly tell us what choices you do have. Either way, as busy as you have been in your enterprises, I think you will do well in whatever school you choose. I just want am suggesting that you choose a few more schools with varying selectivity that what you already have.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:19 am: Edit

According to:
http://www.michiganreview.com/admissions2.php
I score 101-111 points, which lets me in.
I know this is old, but I think its a good guidline.


74 3.7 GPA (Soph-Junior years were much better than frosh)
6-8 points for my school we offer 16 AP "national blue ribbon"
8 points for schedule (20 AP and honors + Harvard)
11 points for tests (they don't count much)
2 points for being a Mainer
Right there is 101-103 points no question.

I could have:
1-2 points for essay (I'm gonna use CC and Essay Edge)
1-3 point for personal acheivement
1-3 point for leadersip

If I can get into Mich, that makes me think I have a good shot at Texas/Madison. Also, UCB is a long shot, but I do have a 690 SAT II average. I'm also retaking my SATs tommorow. Hoping for a 1320-1360

Also, I did apply UCSC, UCI, UCSD so I think I have a safety and emergency plan is Miami or U of Toronto in March.... and I will know about Madison by then.

By Giants (Giants) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:27 am: Edit

Emory is by no means a match for you. You are below their 25% for SATs.

By Nycschoolss (Nycschoolss) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 03:58 am: Edit

Yeah , me and sailorgirl think alike. Maybe we are wrong because we arent from Maine and it is hard for us to judge, but solely from your grades I dont think you cut it. You say that" UCLA, Tufts, and Emory my chances are 75%," while the other schools like Michigans u say u have 50%, - last time i checked, UCLA, Tufts and emory is harder to get into than Michigan.

"BTW, A B+ at Harvard is pretty good. It was a college course with undergraduates. He is a PH,D. professor and we had many discussions, so just b/c I got a B+ in his course doesn't mean I still can't impress him. " - Isn't Harvard's curve an A-?, it is great that you have a good rec but unfortunately I think most colleges, esp harvard looks at GPA and Sat. The recs, interview and essays in my opinions are just tipping points for people who have stellars GPA and Sat's.

Like I said, PRAY!PRAY PRAY! little applicants from Maine!

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:24 pm: Edit

Well I just took the SAT and Im confident I did much better than before - when I ommitted 9 questions - this time I finished early.

BTW, I think you guys need to check your critical reading, math word problems, and reading comprhension:
"I would say between UCLA, Tufts, and Emory my chances are 75% I will get into one... "

Thats 3 schools.... 75% chance I will get into 1... I am saying my chances are 25% each...

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:46 pm: Edit

When you said "PRAY!PRAY PRAY! little applicants from Maine!", twice, Does this mean I should pray that I am applying to a pool of midgets, and that my sheer physical dominance will make the most selective schools accept me?

Maybe the word you are searching for is "few."

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:49 pm: Edit

I don't want to jinx myself, but I think I just nailed the SAT Is and got something like a 1340-1420... Where would this put me in my chances? My SAT IIs 790 US 670 Math IIc 620 Math Ic and 610 writing. Does writing and Ic need to be improved? I know I can do it.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:54 pm: Edit

I don't want to jinx myself, but I think I just nailed the SAT Is and got something like a 1340-1420... Where would this put me in my chances? My SAT IIs 790 US 670 Math IIc 620 Math Ic and 610 writing. Do writing and Ic need to be improved? I know writing does, but what about Ic for business. I know I can do it.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:58 pm: Edit

Even if Harvard's curve was a A-, which it isnt for most courses, particularly this advanced Capital Markets and Investments Econ class a B+ proves I am Harvard material. You also don't understand the circumstances that I was under... One of a few high school students taking the course and I had never taken statistics. So it was hard to take this junior/senior college class with many standard deviation/beta formulas which I had to learn on my own.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 12:58 pm: Edit

double post

By Giants (Giants) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 03:39 pm: Edit

Saying that you have a 75% chance of getting into one of the three does not mean that you have a 25% chance of getting into each by the way. You'd have to have a 37% chance at each place in order to say that you have a 75% chance at getting in at one or more. Someone with a B+ in a class that requires statistics at Harvard should know that.

By Lhm501 (Lhm501) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 03:56 pm: Edit

Tio, nothing proves that you are Harvard material except an admissions decision by Harvard. Period. The boards were flooded with disappointed people last year who had vastly superior scores, grades and ecs. People are not trying to put you down, they are trying to give you a more realistic picture. Your pride is getting in the way, which I can understand. Just try to temper your expections so that you are pleasantly surprised instead of horribly disappointed--it could happen.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 07:32 pm: Edit

Like I said... Im not aiming for Harvard/Stanford... I know they are dreams.

By Tlo (Tlo) on Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 05:44 pm: Edit

Update:
I got a new 1370 on my SAT (700 Verbal 670 Math)
Retaking SAT II writing in January

My recs are nasty:
"The best student I have ever had"
"Continues to raise the bar for myself and his peers."
"I have experienced first hand his commitment to amnesty international as a founding member."
Now what are my chances?


Report an offensive message on this page    E-mail this page to a friend
Posting is currently disabled in this topic. Contact your discussion moderator for more information.

Administrator's Control Panel -- Board Moderators Only
Administer Page | Delete Conversation | Close Conversation | Move Conversation