For all those people who wants to get into "Ivies":





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Discus: What Are My Chances?: September 2003 Archive: For all those people who wants to get into "Ivies":
By Pacman (Pacman) on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 - 11:46 am: Edit

All for of you people who wants to "get into Ivies" and wonder "what your chances is". Here is a rough estimate.

Let's assume your stats are average amoung the applicants. Overall, Ivy schools accept about 16% or 1/6 of the applicants. So if your stat is average, then you have a 1/6 chance of admission for a school. But you can apply to different Ivies.

Let's say you apply to 6 different Ivy schools.

Your chance of getting rejected by all of them is (5/6)^6. So the chance of you getting into at least one is 1- (5/6)^6, which is like...something in the 60%.

That's a rough estimate of your chance of making it to the ivies.

By Chenfei (Chenfei) on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 - 11:51 am: Edit

LOL! If one could only use mathematic models to describe the admission process... 60%+ of getting admitted... too bad it doesn't work for real life. If you get rejected by one Ivy, you will probably get rejected by all of them.

By Pacman (Pacman) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 09:49 am: Edit

There are many things in life that can be approx. modeled with mathematics. Because MATH IS THE UNIVERSE!

If you get rejected by one Ivy, it does NOT mean you'll get rejected by all Ivies. Getting rejected by Harvard doesn't automatically mean you'll get rejected by Cornell, stupid.

I said the formula works for "an average applicant", which means his/her chance of admission is the same as the acceptance rate of the college.

It doesn't work for dumb people like you, in that case the chance would be 3%.

By Chenfei (Chenfei) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 11:20 am: Edit

Oh my, you have such a wonderful way of... expressing yourself. Punching numbers into the calculator without even thinking about some aspects of the mechamism leading to these statistics is NOT Math. But hey, what do I know. I'm not even average, right?

Excuse me for my foolishness and thank you for giving me 3% regarding my admission chances, your highness.

By Mike (Mike) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 11:28 am: Edit

Bad Math. You stil only have a 1/6 chance no matter how many you apply at. Having a 1/6 chance at one still means you have the same 1/6 at the remainging 7

By Chenfei (Chenfei) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 11:50 am: Edit

Actually, no. 1- (5/6)^6 would be the right approach, IF it was solely a textbook problem.

By Pacman (Pacman) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 01:02 pm: Edit

at least it's a rough estimate, something people can quantitize if they are a decent applicant.

It's better than "you have a pretty good chance", or "it's a reach school for you".

By Chenfei (Chenfei) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 01:37 pm: Edit

If this "60%" makes one feel good... well... then I have nothing more to add. :)

By Rubenizm (Rubenizm) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 03:07 pm: Edit

wait pacman did you call him stupid because he sounds asian?
last time you said that inferior races should get out of the way of smart races. So who's smarter in your majestic opinion Whites or Asians?
i mean i know it's definitely not those blacks and hispanics whose scores are lower and according to you evolution failed us by not getting rid of them.

By Baltodad (Baltodad) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 03:08 pm: Edit

Your problem is that we aren't dealing with random probabilities here.

Many applicants are fooling themselves by applying to Ivies and have a 0% chance of being accepted.

At the upper end of the spectrum, you have the superstar applicant with virtually 100% chance of getting in... and who will be part of Harvard's 16%, AND Yale's 16%, AND Princeton's 16%, etc., etc.

The "average applicant" probably has LESS than 16% chance, because the superstars at the top (who generally apply to more than one Ivy) fill up the overwhelming bulk of the acceptance pool.

By Rubenizm (Rubenizm) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 03:10 pm: Edit

do the jews also get "privileges"? Or do they deserver them because they're smarter?

You know i could do a research project on you....let's call it...."mentality of bigots", or "interview with hitler-fan"

By Rubenizm (Rubenizm) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 03:12 pm: Edit

oh yeah by the way i forgot to inform you that you're an idiot, because college admissions aren't random. i think that YOU're polluting the gene pool whitey.

By Chenfei (Chenfei) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 03:14 pm: Edit

Baltodad, you shouldn't have pointed this out. You have just destroyed numerous innocent dreams with your bad, unqualified, non-math-based analysis.

By Fr33f00d (Fr33f00d) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 06:52 pm: Edit

that formula only works if none of the applicants get in to multiple ivy leagues.

By Peterkitts (Peterkitts) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 06:59 pm: Edit

hey, it's statistics class all over again!

By Pacman (Pacman) on Thursday, September 25, 2003 - 09:56 pm: Edit

Rubenizm, no I'm not calling chenfei stupid because he/she is Asian. I would never do that because I'm an Asian too. I never meant to be a bigot or elitest. I was just sick of people who have pathetic stats ask "can I get into Harvard" and "how much does being a fill-in-the blank help me". College admission IS random for those who are borderline, what I mean by "average applicants". By the way, thanks for calling me an "idiot". I never really care what anonymous people online think of me, especially if they talk like a typical smarta$$.

Baltodad, I'm sorry, but there isn't that many "superstars", far from enough to fill all 16% of any college. 16% of all applicants for a typical Ivy is about 2000 people. It's a joke to think that there are that many sure admits in the nation. Because guess what? smart people are EXTREMELY limited, and there are way too many Ivy Leagues.
I'm not sure how many Ivy Leagues there are, but adding Stanford, MIT, let's assume we have 9 "prestigious college" in the US. Each of those ENROLL about 1000 students every year. That's 9000 students! and that's only ONE year. But as far as I'm concerned, there are only about 70 or 80 senior every year who qualify for the USAMO. For debate, chess, piano...those who can rank nationally are very limited too. So there are very very few "superstars". Like a Harvard admission officer said, only 5% of the admitted students are "sure admits". 80% is simply "standard strong". Then you have about 15% of the people who get in because of atheletics or affirmitive action. I think I said CLEARLY in my previous message (number 3) that an average applicant is ONE WHO HAS A CHANCE OF ADMISSION ROUGHLY EQUAL TO THE COLLEGE ACCEPTANCE RATE. Did I say he/she has to rank in the 50% percentile of all applicants? NO!

Just remember one thing, 95% of the the people at prestious colleges are dumb. 99% of the people at regular colleges are dumb. That's the only difference.

By Pacman (Pacman) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 10:17 am: Edit

By the way, Baltodad, next time you get an "average score" on a test, tell me if it's 50% of the possible score. Thanks.

By Chenfei (Chenfei) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 10:46 am: Edit

"I never really care what anonymous people online think of me, especially if they talk like a typical smarta$$."

Hm... I like that, hehe.

By Baltodad (Baltodad) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 02:47 pm: Edit

Pacman-

I'm not sure what point you were trying to make a couple posts above. The discussion wasn't about about "average scores". The subject was average applicants to Ivy League schools.

The "average applicant" is the exact median of the applicant pool. At Ivy League schools, that's someone with 1350 or 1400 SATs, not the national average of 1000. (The average in the acceptance group is more like 1500.)

But to give you something to think about:
Harvard received 21,000 applications last year to fill 2,000 spots. Over 3,000 of the applicants were high school valedictorians, and only 20% of them were accepted. About 350 of the applicants had 1600 SATs, and less than half were accepted.

Good luck being the "average applicant" in Harvard's applicant pool.

By Pacman (Pacman) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 03:01 pm: Edit

Right, so being a valdedictorian doesn't automatically get you in. Not being a valedictorian doesn't eliminate you. That's because being a valedictorian only proves you are a hard worker, or grade hungry, nothing else.
Getting the 1600 on the SAT means you studied hard and also lucky, so what?

I never mentioned a standard on "average". I deemed average by the percentage of the acceptance.

By Becks777 (Becks777) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 05:06 pm: Edit

Sine we are on the topic of averages here, i wanna know something. When colleges say their middle 50% score of sat is like-1350-1450, do they mean the middle 50 of the applicants or the middle 50 of those who r admitted

By Becks777 (Becks777) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 05:06 pm: Edit

Sine we are on the topic of averages here, i wanna know something. When colleges say their middle 50% score of sat is like-1350-1450, do they mean the middle 50 of the applicants or the middle 50 of those who r admitted

By Sac (Sac) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 05:22 pm: Edit

isn't it current freshman class?

By Rubenizm (Rubenizm) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 05:25 pm: Edit

admitted...maybe even enrolled. it's definitely not applicant though
i think it's admitted

By Baltodad (Baltodad) on Friday, September 26, 2003 - 07:47 pm: Edit

It's the middle 50% for the actually enrolled freshman class.

By Neo (Neo) on Saturday, September 27, 2003 - 01:55 pm: Edit

Baltodad hit it on the nose.

1/4th of the entering students scored above that range, and 1/4th of the entering class scored below that range. But 1 out of every 2 students that got in scored Within that range.

By Manowar (Manowar) on Saturday, September 27, 2003 - 02:28 pm: Edit

Pacman you need to brush up on that grammar:
"All for of you people who wants"
"what your chances is"

By Manowar (Manowar) on Saturday, September 27, 2003 - 02:32 pm: Edit

Its possible to get accepted by Harvard and not Cornell. Maybe Harvard finds someone interesting w/o stellar stats, whereas Cornell won't find that person interesting.


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