Click here to go to the NEW College Discussion Forum

A new Newsweek poll (the first taken after the debates with a fresh sample) from September 30 through October 1st finds John Kerry in the lead over President Bush 49 to 46 percent. When Nader is included, Kerry leads 47-45 percent. Of the voters polled who watched the debates, 61 percent said Kerry was a clear winner. 19 percent said Bush had a clear win and 16 percent said it was a draw.

Bush's approval rating has dropped to 46 percent, the lowest it has been since the RNC. 48 percent do NOT want to see Bush reelected while 46 percent do want to see Bush reelected.

Survey of 1013 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Newsweeks poll after the RNC found an 11 point Bush lead. A Newsweek poll taken from Sept 9 - Sept 10 found a 6 point Bush lead.... so a 14 point turnaround in a month.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/

By Riflesforwatie (Riflesforwatie) on Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 06:52 pm: Edit

Just announced on CNN, the latest Gallup poll has the race tied among likely voters, 49 to 49, with Nader getting 1 percent.
Bush job approval drops to 50 percent.

The last Gallup poll had Bush up 8 (Sept 26)
September 15th Gallup poll had Bush up 14
September 5th Gallup poll had Bush up 7.

By Vancat (Vancat) on Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 06:59 pm: Edit

and latest rasmussen poll and electoralvote.com had bush still up with no change in poll numbers...hmmmmmm... WHAT TO THINK...

Honestly, does this make you giddy or something? Proof that these pre-election polls, in whichever way they point, are completely pointless: www.electoralvote.com

As you'll be able to see after a few days, states fluctuate between Strong Kerry to Barely Bush in a single day. Other states go from Solid Bush to Solid Kerry in a day too.

So...you might be gettin all horny with these poll numbers, but only November 2 matters.

By Riflesforwatie (Riflesforwatie) on Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 07:14 pm: Edit

"and latest rasmussen poll and electoralvote.com had bush still up with no change in poll numbers...hmmmmmm... WHAT TO THINK... "

Rasmussen was the single most INACCURATE pollster in the 2000. The absolute WORST. NO ONE in the polling business trusts his numbers. Do you know why? Look at the archives of his tracking "poll". The numbers barely change at all. That's because he weights his polls for party identification, something not supported by the National Council on Public Polls. The only redeeming quality that Scott Rasmussen possesses is that he polls 10 times more than anyone else in the business does.

As for electoral-vote.com, he uses only one poll per state to determine his numbers. I like to look at electoral vote predictions where more data is used, such as Dales ECB (run by a Bush supporter). http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm. Election Projection (run by a Bush supporter) is also a good site. http://www.electionprojection.com/

The ECB uses multiple polls per state to determine whether the state is a tossup or a "Safe" "Strong", "Leaning", or "Slight" state for each candidate. He currently has Bush ahead 252-154, and with the tossup states included Bush 291-207.

E-V's problem is that he includes Internet Zogby polls (which favor Democrats). Zogby's Internet polls use a self-selected sample, which means they can't truly be random. Also, E-V uses partisan polls to make changes in the states. E-V jumps around so much because on days when the Zogby internet polls are released Kerry jumps 75 electoral votes. Sometimes pollsters don't exactly agree. For instance, in Pennsylvania, E-V.com is using only ONE poll (Mason-Dixon Sept 28 Kerry +1). However, the state should probably really be a tossup because polls are so close that they are showing first one candidate ahead and then the other. ARG, Fox News, Temple U., and Mason-Dixon all have Kerry ahead, but Gallup, Quinnipiac U., ABC News, Keystone, and Strategic Vision (R) have Bush ahead. Rasmussen *cough* has it tied. IMO, Pennsylvania is a tossup. You can't use just one poll to determine who a state is going for. I use E-V for nothing other than seeing when a poll is released (because he sometimes posts them first).

One more thing to keep in mind: National polling shows movement in voter sentiments long before state polls do. So, in one and a half weeks or so, I'd expect to see movement reflecting the Gallup and Newsweek numbers in state polling.

By Riflesforwatie (Riflesforwatie) on Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 07:18 pm: Edit

A site that does flat averages, btw, is realclearpolitics.com. National polling is here: http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

By Vancat (Vancat) on Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 07:25 pm: Edit

mmhmmm, and you still think we all care...

Did I make a big deal when Bush was so far ahead? Not really.

You on the other hand, seem to be getting super horny to the max with these polls. And who knows what's going to happen until Nov. 2.

Really man, chill out and relax. Hold your horses. Take a chill pill. Mellow out dude. Just two more months my homie.

By Riflesforwatie (Riflesforwatie) on Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 09:11 pm: Edit

two more months? One more :P thank goodness, or I'd be crazy by the election lol

By Vancat (Vancat) on Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 09:20 pm: Edit

man still thought it was september. yes, One more month.

and then i saw her standing there
with green eyes and long blonde hair


da-nana-da-nanananananaa