American Research Group Polling Extravaganza





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Discus: College Confidential Café: 2004 Archive: American Research Group Polling Extravaganza
By Riflesforwatie (Riflesforwatie) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 04:51 pm: Edit

They polled all 50 state and DC. Here are the results from the swing states, and any interesting results:

Arizona Bush +6
Arkansas Bush +3
Colorado Bush +1
Florida Kerry +1
Illinois (NOT a swing state) Kerry +6
Iowa Bush +2
Louisiana (NOT a swing state) Bush +8
Maine Kerry +4
Michigan Kerry +8
Minnesota Kerry +2
Missouri Bush +6
Nevada Bush +2
New Hampshire Bush +2
New Jersey (NOT a swing state) Kerry +8
New Mexico Kerry +5
North Carolina Bush +5
Ohio Bush +2
Oregon Kerry +2
Pennsylvania Kerry +1
Tennessee (NOT a swing state) Bush +7
Virginia (NOT a swing state) Bush +6
Washington Kerry +7
West Virginia TIED
Wisconsin TIED

Those are all the states that are swing states or possibly competitive.

Some other interesting results:

The first Delaware poll this election:

Kerry +9
(50-41)

Washington, D.C.'s first poll:

Kerry +67
(78-11)

Closer than expected:

Georgia Bush +11
Hawaii Kerry +10
Mississippi Bush +9
New York Kerry +12
South Carolina Bush +12
Vermont Kerry +10

Anyway, totaling up the numbers in the electoral college, we get the following:

Kerry 270
Bush 253

According to these polls, if the election were held today, Kerry would win. (270 electoral votes exactly are needed to win).

Wisconsin and West Virginia are exactly tied, accounting for 15 electoral votes.

ARG also did a regular national poll which was weighted by party affiliation:

Bush 47
Kerry 46

All polls were started as early as September 7th and finished as late as September 20th.

State polls are based on interviews conducted with 600 likely voters in each state, making each state poll have a +/- 4% margin of error.

View more information about the polls and the rest of the state polls at http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/.

By Vancat (Vancat) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 05:00 pm: Edit

Every poll is different and yields different results, so I'm hoping you don't actually put too much faith in them.

The only poll that really matters is The Big One come November.

By Riflesforwatie (Riflesforwatie) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 05:09 pm: Edit

Of course I dont' put all my faith into them, Vancat. They are just further evidence that the Bush "bounce" continues to collapse.

By Jaug1 (Jaug1) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 05:35 pm: Edit

Vancat, I have seen you however say that you trust polls where Bush is ahead. Please, don't just be mad at this latest poll. Polls don't mean anything because the question you have to ask is are you a registered dem or rep?

By Vancat (Vancat) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 05:37 pm: Edit

lol how exactly am I mad. On the previous posts where Bush was ahead, I continued to say that only the Big One in November mattered. Polls are often flawed, no matter what they seem to be showing.

"There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

By Xdad (Xdad) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 06:00 pm: Edit

If you do not like the first answer, ask another person!

Sink your teeth into this article from the Detroit Free Press:

ELECTION 2004:
Bush is surging in swing states
Polls show him leading in many Gore won in 2000
September 21, 2004
BY STEVEN THOMMA
FREE PRESS WASHINGTON STAFF

WASHINGTON -- President George W. Bush is cutting into Sen. John Kerry's base, leading or drawing virtually even with the Massachusetts congressman in six of seven swing states that Democrat Al Gore won four years ago, according to a new Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll and two other single-state polls.

Only Michigan, which barely went for Gore in 2000, is solidly in the Kerry column. In Michigan, Kerry led by 47-41.

In Iowa, Bush led Kerry by 48-42 percent; in Minnesota, by 46-44; in New Mexico, by 47-43; in Oregon, by 47-43; and in Wisconsin by 46-44.

Kerry held a razor-thin lead of 45-44 percent in Pennsylvania.

Those results emerged from a series of polls done by Mason-Dixon Research and Polling for Knight Ridder, the parent company of the Free Press, and MSNBC. In addition, Mason-Dixon surveyed Minnesota for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio, and polled New Mexico for the Santa Fe New Mexican and KOB Television.

While Bush held a slim lead in most of these key battleground states, each state poll was close enough to be considered a statistical tie. Mason-Dixon surveyed between 624 and 629 likely voters in each state between Sept. 11 and Sept. 16; the polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

For what is worth, the results of ARG's poll in New Mexico are not inline with local reports that show a Bush lead as of today, at the great dismay of Gov. Richardson.

Just remember that elections are never won in August, September, or October.

By Vancat (Vancat) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 06:01 pm: Edit

If you think I'm mad just because this poll shows different, lets go back to a thread posted long ago that had bush 11points ahead. My response was:

"Good. Though it doesn't necessarily show anything. Most magazine polls are phone calls and they only poll what, like ~1000 people? We'll all find out in November."

Of course I was glad, but seriously people, don't expect me to get happy/riled up over a little poll.

By Riflesforwatie (Riflesforwatie) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 07:25 pm: Edit

Xdad - Most of Mason-Dixon's polls for MSNBC this time were way skewed towards Bush. For instance, the movement they found towards Bush in Oregon was completely contrary to what Zogby, ARG, and Research2000 found.

On the other hand, in Ohio Mason-Dixon agreed with Gallup, Strategic Vision (R), and U. of Cincinnati, finding around an eight to eleven point lead for Bush... while SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and ARG dissent with only a 2 or 3 point lead for Bush.

I think these results by ARG are reasonable. New Mexico continues to recieve Hispanics that vote overwhelmingly for Kerry... I think the Democrats will take New Mexico again this election.

I'll add that it's also important to see at least 2 polls show a movement before really accepting that movement. Case in point, Pennsylvania. Several polls showed a 6-10 Kerry lead.

Now, however, we have Gallup, SurveyUSA, Strategic Vision (R), Rasmussen, ABC News, Quinnipiac, Keystone Poll, ARG, and Mason-Dixon all in agreement that Pennsylvania is essentially a tossup.

By Eyesclozedtight (Eyesclozedtight) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 07:45 pm: Edit

i agree with vancat(surprisingly!). polls are a giant load. the only poll i care about is the one on november 2nd.

By Xdad (Xdad) on Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 08:01 pm: Edit

"New Mexico continues to recieve Hispanics that vote overwhelmingly for Kerry..."

The Hispanic vote in New Mexico is a lot more complicated than you imagine. The issues that are important to hispanic families that have lived in Santa Fe or Albuquerque are quite different from recent immigrants. While the 42% hispanics of New Mexico do typically vote for democrats, Bush does also extremely well as a Republican, especially with devoted Catholics.

You should also be aware that Hispanics are pretty apathic when it comes to show up on election day, and the current indication is that white vote will go for Bush.

Believing that Kerry will win easily in New Mexico, when Gore only won by 366 votes, is as big a mistake as believing that Theresa Heinz is bringing in immigrants votes.

Kerry's success will hinge on finding a way to get massive number of hispanics to the voting booths. From my vantage point, there is little chance to see that happening, unless they start bussing voters in from El Paso, as they had to do to get 500 people listening to John Edwards. Obviously, John Edwards picked the wrong day as President Bush was speaking in Las Cruces in front of a standing room only at NMSU.

You can keep trusting your polls, and I'll keep trusting what I see with my own eyes, and what I know about how things work in this part of the world.


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