Hurricane forecasting - what's the deal?

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Discus: College Confidential Café: 2004 Archive: Hurricane forecasting - what's the deal?
By Chavi (Chavi) on Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 04:31 pm: Edit

So can any of you budding meteorologists out there explain the current system where they take 8 different hurricane models, which are developed by different groups of scientists based on different assumptions, and average them all together on some FSU supercomputer? Isn't that statistically wrong? My understanding is that two of these 8 models are considered more reliable than the others, but they average them all together like it's some crapshoot. Yesterday, the models showed Frances going anywhere from South Carolina to Cuba, and the average had her hitting Central Florida.

Seems like a model is either right, or it isn't, and averaging them doesn't get you any more accurate a forecast. Why don't they just report what the different models say, and let us see for ourselves where it might go?

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