Reasonable voting list?





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Discus: College Confidential Café: 2004 Archive: Reasonable voting list?
By Goodchocolate (Goodchocolate) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 02:29 pm: Edit

Is this list accurate? If not, tell me where it's wrong. Thanks.

Almost Definitely Bush
1) Texas
2) Nevada
3) Utah
4) Arizona
5) Idaho
6) Wyoming
7) Montana
8) North Dakota
9) South Dakota
10) Nebraska
11) Oklahoma
12) South Carolina
13) North Carolina
14) Tennessee
15) Louisiana
16) Arkansas
17) West Virginia
18) Kentucky
19) Mississippi
20) Alabama

Probably Bush
1) Virginia
2) Missouri
3) Ohio
4) Indiana
5) Kansas
6) Georgia

Almost Definitely Kerry
1) California
2) Vermont
3) New York
4) New Jersey
5) Massachusetts
6) Connecticut
7) Minnesota
8) Maryland
9) Delaware
10) Rhode Island

Probably Kerry
1) Washington
2) Oregon
3) Wisconsin
4) Michigan
5) Illinois
6) Maine
7) New Hampshire

Unsure (help me group these elsewhere)
1) Florida
2) Pennsylvania
3) New Mexico
4) Iowa
5) Colorado (they’re a Republican state, but Kerry is a native Coloradoan, so they may favor him)
6) Alaska
7) Hawaii

By Scubasteve (Scubasteve) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 02:34 pm: Edit

wisconsin = almost definitely kerry
pennsylvania = probably kerry
new mexico = probably kerry (Strong support from the popular dem. governor)

north carolina may flip in favor of kerry if he runs Edwards on the ticket as his veep

some of the midwestern states may also flip in favor of kerry if he runs Gephardt on the tickest as his veep

By Scubasteve (Scubasteve) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 02:38 pm: Edit

i'd put florida as probably kerry as well (it was obviously a tight race in 2000, gore should have won the state and you better believe florida democrats will be voting in mass numbers this year as a result)

hawaii is almost definitely kerry and alaska is almost definitely bush

By Scubasteve (Scubasteve) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 02:44 pm: Edit

if you look at how close the 2000 election results were... take into account the few swing states that can always go either way... then consider the fact the bush is not quite as popular now as he was 4 years ago... things are looking up for kerry

By Hunter1985 (Hunter1985) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 03:55 pm: Edit

Wow...triple post...how pointless...

"north carolina may flip in favor of kerry if he runs Edwards on the ticket as his veep

some of the midwestern states may ALSO flip in favor of kerry if he runs Gephardt on the tickest as his veep"

Ah, so Kerry's running two VP's? Interesting...

By Scubasteve (Scubasteve) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 04:14 pm: Edit

the irony...talk about a pointless post...

i'm not sure if you are aware but kerry has not yet selected a running mate..

Edwards and Gephardt are considered to be the front runners for the job by many... thus i entailed two scenerios that can happen depending upon kerrys ultimate choice.

use a little common sense it will get you far..

By Hunter1985 (Hunter1985) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 04:25 pm: Edit

I find it sad that this is the second time TODAY people here fail to understand my humor (although someone laughed at my Israel/Palestine joke :) )...

Yeah, I got a 35 on the ACT and I don't know how many VP's a candidate has or who Kerry's VP is. Yeah, I'm really that stupid, thank you for enlightening me!

God, I'm sick of explaining myself
.

By Scubasteve (Scubasteve) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 05:57 pm: Edit

you make a feeble attempt to berate me with your poorly founded sarcasim (aka waste of bandwith), and i will return fire

"Yeah, I got a 35 on the ACT "

Be sure to mention that one on a job interview as it will get you FAR in life. Maybe you can even become an entrepreneur and make t-shirts that say it. Well of course untill someone "smarter" comes along and makes one that reads "I got a 36 on the ACT"

By Usunkmyb_Ship (Usunkmyb_Ship) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 06:30 pm: Edit

^*snickers* :p

By Hunter1985 (Hunter1985) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 08:07 pm: Edit

My congrats to you, you are two-for-two on reply set-ups. I knew when I posted both things (espcially the act thing) exactly what you would reply, but for some reason I still posted it. Meh, wasn't really thinking...so tired...probably wouldn't do it again.

I just saw 3 posts in a row saying roughly:

More states will go for Kerry
More states will go for Kerry
More states will go for Kerry and he'll win the election.

I found it redundent and responded with my thoughts. I just hate it when I'm patronized, which is how I took it when you accused me of having no common sense. It was the first thing I thought of when you insinuated that I didn't know that a candidate could only have 1 VP.

By Scubasteve (Scubasteve) on Friday, June 25, 2004 - 09:06 pm: Edit

well i didnt mean to be some obsessive liberal, because i wouldn't even consider myself liberal... i'm just saying what seems to be the case personal feelings aside

By Geniusash (Geniusash) on Saturday, June 26, 2004 - 01:22 am: Edit

Hunter, I applaude your use of "meh". Way to go.

By Goodchocolate (Goodchocolate) on Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 02:16 pm: Edit

Do you all think there's a decent chance of Bush winning? Or is it hopeless for him?

By Bunmushroom (Bunmushroom) on Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 03:16 pm: Edit

right now all experts say its dead even and it is too far from the elections to tell. They say that Bush will win if the economy continues in the way it has been going and if the iraq transition goes without too much trouble. Kerry would win if the economy changes its direction and goes down or if there is a lot of trouble in iraq after the transition. I personally think Bush will win, since Kerry has barly made any ground even during the worst times of Bush such as the prisoner abuse thing and the terrorists in iraq, but it is very hard to predict how events will turn. It looks the economic recovery is strong and Bush is trying and probobly will get the nato countries to help in iraq.

By Goodchocolate (Goodchocolate) on Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 05:00 pm: Edit

LETS HOPE SO!!! :)!

By Babybird87 (Babybird87) on Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 06:24 pm: Edit

Meh. :)

According to this article, people that have determined 6 100% tried and true methods for who wins, say that this election is virtually tied.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-06-23-bush-kerry-cover_x.htm

If Kerry picks a Southern VP, he might win a couple of those.

If Bush doesn't win Ohio, it's bad news.

Ah-nold might make California a harder race for Kerry than originally thought.

Florida is anyone's guess...strange, strange state.

and Kerry might win Virginia.

By Parentofteen (Parentofteen) on Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 06:36 pm: Edit

NC will support Bush whether or not Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate. Edwards is not a favorite in his home state at all. It is well-recognized that he does not have the experience to serve as a VP.

By Goodchocolate (Goodchocolate) on Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 09:42 pm: Edit

NC will support Bush whether or not Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate.

I find that *very* hard to believe.

By Aspirer42 (Aspirer42) on Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 10:40 pm: Edit

Indeed. This shows the two 5% apart--with a 4% margin of error--and Bloomberg's poll shows similar results. The latter website shows that a quarter of prospective voters 'would be more likely to vote for Kerry' if he picked Edwards.

I wonder, though, if the 26% the report doesn't mention have no opinion or if an Edwards selection would actually make them *less* likely to vote Kerry. Poll results aside, it is true that Edwards is a polarizing figure in North Carolina.

(Aside: A few months ago, I found a chart of the Democratic primary candidates' heights and set them against the Iowa caucus data. The results were... humorously accurate. :))

By Digmedia (Digmedia) on Monday, June 28, 2004 - 07:16 am: Edit

I think that the candidates can save an incredible amount of money by stopping all campaign spending. The voters are SO polarized that the very few undecideds (are there any?) won't make much of a difference. Those for Bush will not vote for Kerry no matter how much Kerry spends and those not for Bush won't vote for Bush no matter how much HE spends.

By Recordingwater (Recordingwater) on Monday, June 28, 2004 - 10:30 am: Edit

I don't think Arnold will make CA a harder race for Kerry. I don't think he'll make much of a difference. I am going to be praying (and I'm not religious) on election day that Kerry wins. Praying!

By Jlq3d3 (Jlq3d3) on Monday, June 28, 2004 - 04:39 pm: Edit

gore only won california by 7% last time and there is/was great resentment for the democrat davis and a lot of satisfaction with the republican arnold, and that could swing a good number of voters. but its still most likly a democratic state. but if bush won it, it would be all over for the dems.


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