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WHat are my chances of getting into these colleges?
My Top picks:
1. UT-Austin
2. UCLA
3. Michigan
4. UW-Madison
5. USC (southern Claifornia)
6. A&M
7. Chicago
8. Rice
9. Baylor


MY STATS:

Fresh GPA: 3.4
Soph GPA: 2.22
Junior GPA : 3.6

CUmulative GPA: about 3.07

Class Rank 272/540

Courseload:
Frechman year: all honors courses

1 AP sophmore year AB CALC (school didn't offer honors)

4 AP's Junior year, the rest honors

5 AP's senior year, the rest are honors courses

SAT Math: 680
SAT Verbal : 690
Total SAT: 1370 (I expect to raise this to 1400-1450 by the next time I take it, since thats what I was scoring on practice tests)

SATII's (estimates based on practice tests, to be taken in october)

Physics: 710
World Hist : 680
CHemistry: 690

AP Stats: 4 (last years valdicotrian got a 3)
BC CALC : 5 (independant study, on my own, not through my school)
AB CALC : 5 (took my sopmore year, though I go t a D in the class)
PhysicsB: 5
USHist : 4 (took as an regular course as sophmore, took test my junior year)
WrldHst : 5
European: 5

ECs
Football 9
Hockey 9
(stopped sports after 9 because of injury)
Academic Decathlon: plan to participate as a senior
volunteering: I plan to do about 100 hour this comming year

I never thought colleges cared that much about AP scores, but then I read in Newsweek that they were really important. Some harvard adcom said something like (my paraphrasing) "AP scores are a better indicator of college preparedness than SAT scores". SO I am glad I did well on my AP exams. How much do colleges really care about AP scores?

I know that my class rank and GPA are not very good, but I think I make up for that in SATIs, SATIIs, and APs. Also, my class rank is much lower than it should be, due to the fact that I transfered schools. I am not trying to make excuses, but my parents seperated my sophmore year and my grandfather died, hence the drop from 3.4 to 2.2. I also moved after 8th grade, switched schools after 9th, and moved again after 10th. Would colleges overlook that year, given these circumstances? Thanks.