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STATS:
IM IN VA!

ASIAN
1330 SAT (GOING TO TRY AND BRING UP)
3.6 unweighted GPA/3.7 weighted
Been working since i was 14
by end of senior year 6+ APS
havent taken SAT IIs yet, but think ill do decent


key club, national art honor society(minor officer), founder of Future Scientists and ENgineers of AMerica club at our school, acedemic letter, Scholastic bowl, club basketball, dance for two years...


Im thinking of schools like UVA ,UNC, UMD, BU, TULANE...
what are my chances...

PLUS---know any other schools that are FUN with good rep. and decent business programs that would be good match for me?

By Fiza (Fiza) on Saturday, June 07, 2003 - 11:11 pm: Edit

can anyone who actually got into UVA in-state post complete stats?

By Quarky (Quarky) on Sunday, June 08, 2003 - 01:15 am: Edit

well, i got into tulane with a 1330 SAT, 4.02 or something like that GPA, 30 ACT...

By Quarky (Quarky) on Sunday, June 08, 2003 - 01:16 am: Edit

early action... U apply by Nov 1 or sumfin.

By Fiza (Fiza) on Sunday, June 08, 2003 - 01:21 pm: Edit

well tulane isnt exactly my early action school (you only get one "early action card" usually). I do want to get in though...its in my top three- but theres always the other two.

By Anotherdad (Anotherdad) on Monday, June 09, 2003 - 10:57 am: Edit

Fiza,
You have a decent chance at all those schools, I think, but UVA is known to be uptight about GPAs. We hear consistent rumors that you need 4.0+ unless there is some special factor (such as lacrosse). DD had a higher GPA than yours, 100 points more on SAT, good SATIIs, and ECs and was rejected at UVA.
There are a lot of good, fairly safe schools out there to check out. I would suggest that you first look at the large state universities -- Rutgers, UMass-Amherst, and Penn State. They are all good and are big enough to have something for almost everyone.

By Interesteddad (Interesteddad) on Monday, June 09, 2003 - 12:35 pm: Edit

Fiza:

You can go to this webpage to select admissions odds calculators for three public universities, including the University of Virgina.

http://www.ceousa.org/html/predictor.html

These were put together using statistical models by a couple of researchers who had obtained complete application and acceptance data for the Freshman class enteringing in Fall 1999 under the Freedom of Information Act.

It's obviously just a rough guide based solely on the numbers of applicants with "x" qualifications who were admitted. The U of Virginia is a good one because it includes a factor for in-state or out-of-state and a legacy factor.

It's a good one also to play around with various variables and see how the odds change. Likewise, for out of state residents, UVA has an overall 30% acceptance rate which makes it pretty representative of some fairly selective schools -- say halfway between Swarthmore and Vasser. Overall, it would be tougher to get into UVA out of state than it would be for places like Emory.

In your case, the raw odds of being accepted at UVA for an Asian female, in-state, no legacy with math SAT 680, verbal SAT 650, 90th percentile of high school class were approx 71% for fall 1999 admissions.

Caucasian (same stats) were roughly the same (66.9%). The researchers found that caucasian and Asian American stats tended to track pretty closely at most of the universities they studied.

The odds with your stats fall off to 51% if you plug 85% percentile class rank into the calculator, so you'll have to plug in the correct number.

Out of state, the odds with your same stats dropped to 13.5%.

Remember, this is just raw statistical odds -- number of applicants who were accepted. Things like your six AP courses would probably make YOUR odds somewhat better. The increase in number of apps since 1999 may make the odds somewhat worse. But, it's a good thambnail guide based on a lot better data than any of us (who haven't filed Freedom of Information Act requests for the complete admissions statistics).

BTW, the full report on statistics at 47 universities includes a number of Virginia public schools including William&Mary and James Madison.

By Anotherdad (Anotherdad) on Monday, June 09, 2003 - 02:10 pm: Edit

Fiza,
Unfortuntely, the site cited above has an anti-AA axe to grind. Also, at this point the 1999 data are getting less relevant. But you might find out some interesting stuff.
Also relevant is the scattergram material for Churchill HS in Montgomery Cty MD. for admissions success at UVA for the class of 2002 (I think its 2002 -- the graph isn't completely clear). It is out of state, but 16 of the 41 applicants were accepted (39%). However, exactly 1 of 12 applicants with GPAs under 4 was accepted. Of 15 applicants with SATs of 1330 or lower, 2 were accepted and 2 waitlisted. Also, my DD's counselor said that last year at her HS (in state) you needed 4.1 GPA. UVA has a GPA average of 4.0 (per 345 Best Colleges).
Offhand, the raw numbers do not look good for you. But you are close enough to be in the game.

By Interesteddad (Interesteddad) on Monday, June 09, 2003 - 03:03 pm: Edit

No questiont that the website I referenced has an axe to grind.

However, if you read the underlying research paper, it is the most comprehensive statistical analysis on college admissions I've seen. A Freedom of Information request from public universities is the ONLY way that you can get the raw data to do any kind of valid statistical analysis because you need something colleges don't provide: Data for the total pool of applicants and the total pool of acceptances (not enrollees), broken down by SAT, class rank, and ethnicity.

I actually came away from the underlying report with a more positive view of the college's AA policies. What they show is a significant disparity by race on SAT scores, but little disparity in GPA between accepted students. If a college is going to give a benefit of the doubt for certain groups, I think the SAT scores are the place to do it, since there is considerable debate whether the standardized tests really predict much of anything useful.

When trying to assess your chances at a college, it's useless to use the overall average acceptance rates published in the guidebooks, because the rates vary so much for various groups.

The Virginia calculator is particularly useful because it allows you to compare key factors like in-state versus out-of-state and legacy status.

It gives you a ballpark that you can adjust up or down depending on assessments of your curriculum strenth, extra-curriculars, etc.

I'm not sure that anything has fundamentally changed since 1999. Total applications are up at all of these schools, but one big reason for this the incredible flood of international applications in recent years. These applications lower the overall acceptance rate, but have little or no impact on a US student's chances since the admissions odds for international students are so low (1 in 13 is the number published by Swarthmore). Whether the real odds are off by 5% in the calculator or not is somewhat irrelevant. At least it provides a ballpark figure. Exact odds can never be calculated because of subjective considerations like ECs, athletics, leadership, difficulty of curriculum, community service, essays, etc.

In planning college strategy, I want to have some rough idea of where I stand: a 30% chance at this school, a 50% chance, a 75% chance?

In Fiza's case, I would be optimistic for in-state at UVA. Whether the odds are exactly the 71% calculated or somewhat lower, it's still at least a pretty reasonable shot at UVA, particularly with an AP curriculum. The odds are hugely better for Fiza at UVA than they would be at UNC-Chapel Hill, not to mention that tuition would be less than half.

With those odds, and taking into account the bargain tuition for in-state residents, if I were Fiza, I would give strong consideration to applying early decision at UVA and further increasing the odds.

By Fiza (Fiza) on Monday, June 09, 2003 - 04:47 pm: Edit

Hmmm, that site is VERY interesting. I suggest anybody interested in UVA try that even though its a tad bit outdated (1999). Lol..my chance as an asian is 71%...if i was black it would be 99%.See affirmative action doesnt help asians!lol

By Fiza (Fiza) on Monday, June 09, 2003 - 04:49 pm: Edit

Lol...EVEN WHITE APPLICANTS HAD A HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING IN. JEEZ! ITS ACTUALLY HURTING US ASIANS!

By Interesteddad (Interesteddad) on Monday, June 09, 2003 - 05:13 pm: Edit

Actually, in the underlying research paper, the odds of admission for white applicants and Asian Americans was pretty much the same -- perhaps a few percentage points in either direction depending on the school. They found that Asian Americans typically had slightly higher median SAT math scores, slightly lower median SAT verbal scores, and just a tad higher median GPAs. But, overall, the odds for whites and Asian Americans are the same. Affirmative action definitely does not help Asian Americans relative to white candidates.

Any differences are probably more the result of the number of Asian Americans applying to schools in various geographic regions. For example, the number of Asian American applications would be different in the California university system than it might be in the Virginia system -- so even with the exact academic "standards", the odds might vary somewhat.